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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is upon them, forced upon this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only sit out the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a much more significant change with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.