Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
